Trump Eyes Tariff Rollback - Steel and Aluminum Duties May Be Next
In a twist that has trade watchers scratching their heads, the of the steel and Trump administration is reportedly aluminum tariffs that have considering rolling back some been in place since early 2025. The move comes as pushback from Congress intensifies and as the administration looks for ways to ease pressure on consumers and manufacturers.
What We’re Talking About
The original tariffs imposed a 25% duty on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports. They were implemented as part of the administration’s “America First” trade policy, aimed at protecting domestic manufacturers from what the administration called “unfair foreign competition.”
But tariffs are a double-edged sword. While they aim to protect domestic producers, they also raise costs for manufacturers who rely on imported metals - and those costs often get passed to consumers.
Why Roll Back Now?
Several factors appear to be driving this reconsideration:
Congressional pushback: A group of House Republicans have been vocal about the tariffs’ impact on their districts. Manufacturers - especially in industries like automotive, construction, and aerospace - have complained about higher input costs.
** the Fed tryingInflation concerns:** With to bring down inflation, tariffs that raise prices on everything from cars to cans are counterproductive. Today’s CPI report showing inflation at 2.4% may have given the administration room to ease trade tensions.
Trade deal leverage: Sometimes the best negotiation tactic is showing you’re willing to walk away. Rolling back tariffs could be a precursor to announcing new trade deals or renegotiating existing ones.
Who Wins, Who Loses
Domestic steel and aluminum producers: They might not love this. The tariffs helped shield them from foreign competition, and removing them could mean more competition from overseas.
Steel and aluminum importers: Big win here. Lower costs mean higher margins or more competitive pricing.
Manufacturing companies that use steel/aluminum: Automakers, aerospace companies, construction firms, and beer brewers (aluminum cans) would all benefit from lower input costs.
Consumers: Potentially lower prices on cars, appliances, and other goods made with steel or aluminum.
My Take
This is a interesting case of political reality meeting economic policy. Tariffs are politically popular with certain constituencies because they sound tough on “unfair” foreign competition. But the actual economics are messier.
What I find fascinating is the timing. Just as inflation is cooling and the Fed is positioned to cut rates, we see trade policy loosening. That’s not coincidental - it suggests the administration is comfortable letting monetary policy do some of the heavy lifting while they focus on other priorities.
For investors, this could mean:
- Relief for industrials and manufacturing companies
- Slightly better odds for a soft landing (fewer tariff-driven price spikes)
- Potential volatility in domestic steel/aluminum stocks as market digest the news
It’s also worth noting this doesn’t mean tariffs are going away entirely. The administration still maintains tariffs on many other goods, particularly from China. This is more of a targeted rollback than a wholesale reversal.
We’ll see if this actually happens - policy can change quickly. But if it does, it could be a modest tailwind for the economy at a time when the Fed is trying to navigate a landing.
Sources: Financial Times, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg
